From the archive · Originally published as A Last Resort
The Jacaranda Tree
Episode 1 · “Equal Deterrence”
Warm afternoons used to feel like permissions. The smaller kind of permission, the type that arrives without announcement and disappears without ceremony.
Permission to waste an hour. Permission to sit beneath a tree and watch other people live their lives. Permission to believe that tomorrow would resemble today.
Years later, when Alex tried to identify the beginning of everything, his memory always returned to the jacaranda tree near the far fence of the schoolyard. The tree itself was unremarkable, but his memory often anchored itself to ordinary things especially in extraordinary times.
The jacaranda leaned slightly to one side, as though decades of wind had convinced it to stop resisting. In May and June it would predictably shed violet blossoms that gathered in soft drifts across the concrete before footsteps and weather gradually erased them. Alex sat beneath its branches most afternoons with a sketchbook balanced across his knees. Drawing gave him a way to participate in the world indirectly.
Other people seemed eager to throw themselves into reality. Alex preferred observing it first. A blank page never interrupted, demanded explanations, or expected confidence. It simply waited.
Across the yard, children moved through the familiar disorder of recess. Alex wondered if anyone noticed him.
A ball bounced toward a fence and returned.
Someone sang half a song and improvised the rest.
Teachers stood in loose clusters pretending not to supervise while quietly supervising everything.
The air carried the smell of dust, orange peels, and sun-warmed plastic from the playground equipment.
Nothing about the afternoon appeared unusual. In hindsight, Alex would find that detail unsettling. Truly important moments rarely announce themselves in advance. They usually arrive disguised as ordinary days.
Near the fence, a group of teenagers had gathered in the loose formation of people pretending not to gather. Their conversations drifted across the yard in fragments. Someone complained about homework. Someone laughed too loudly. Someone told a story that had clearly improved through repetition.
Grenade launchers hung from nearly every shoulder. The sight barely registered anymore.
The launchers came in different colors and finishes, some decorated with stickers, some carrying charms tied to the straps, one polished brightly enough to reflect sunlight into nearby eyes. Nobody paid much attention to them because nobody felt they needed to.
That was the strange part. Visitors from another era might have found the scene impossible to process. In Alex’s city, however, grenade launchers occupied the same category as traffic lights, security cameras, and utility poles. People noticed them only when something malfunctioned.
Human beings possess an extraordinary ability to normalize their surroundings. Given enough time, almost anything can become background scenery. Humans drift toward so many unique, evolutionalrily advantageous tendencies. That’s all they are really: modes of operation. This mode, however, was more deeply rooted in society. Alex thought it was remarkable how thoroughly acceptance had transformed into everyday invisibility.
In his sketches though, Alex rarely depicted the grenade launchers. He didn’t want to include them. The omission was not ideological, at least not consciously. When he flipped through old sketchbooks he found trees, clouds, sidewalks, buildings, waiting rooms, and people staring out windows. He found children running across playgrounds and commuters standing beneath train schedules.
The launchers were almost always absent in his drawings. Somehow they existed everywhere in the world and nowhere on the page. Over time the omission became so consistent that it started to feel deliberate, even if Alex could never remember making the decision.
The city called its governing philosophy Equal Deterrence. Every citizen received three grenades upon reaching adolescence. No more and no less.
Wealth offered no advantage. Poverty imposed no disadvantage. Politicians received three. Teachers received three. Surgeons, janitors, executives, mechanics, delivery drivers, and students all received three.
The architects of the system considered this arrangement elegant because it reduced power to a number everyone could understand.
Three is enough to make you think. The slogan appeared on advertisements, in classrooms, on government websites, and in public service announcements. Entire careers had been built around repeating it.
The sentence bothered Alex for reasons he struggled to explain. Perhaps it was because nobody ever specified what people were supposed to think about. The logic seemed obvious to everyone else. Scarcity would create responsibility. Responsibility would create caution. Caution would create peace.
The argument moved so smoothly from one conclusion to the next that questioning it often felt impolite.
Alex had noticed that explanations became most persuasive precisely when people stopped examining them. He had once asked a teacher what the slogan actually meant. The answer lasted nearly ten minutes. The question somehow survived intact.
Near the fence, two teenagers stepped away from the larger group. A girl he’d seen before named Marla wore a red jacket (despite the heat). Beside her stood a boy that made him feel uncomfortable. Zeke. Whose confidence appeared fueled almost entirely by the reactions he could provoke from other people.
Their conversation looked ordinary at first. Then something shifted.
The change was subtle enough that most people missed it entirely. Alex didn’t. He had developed a habit of watching hands. Faces seemed unreliable to him. Faces negotiated constantly. Faces concealed, performed, and adapted. Hands often revealed decisions before the rest of the body realized they had been made.
Marla’s hand drifted toward the safety switch on her launcher. The movement wasn’t dramatic. That was precisely what made it unsettling.
Drivers stop noticing the steering wheel beneath their fingers. Musicians stop noticing the instrument they hold every day. People stop feeling the glasses resting on their faces. Familiarity removes weight from things. Eventually it removes wonder. Sometimes it removes caution. Whatever had begun as an argument now carried a different energy.
Alex couldn’t hear every word, but he sensed the conversation narrowing toward a point from which neither participant intended to retreat.
“Say it again,” Marla snapped.
Zeke laughed.
The words that followed disappeared beneath the noise of the playground. They no longer mattered anyway. Something crossed Marla’s face. Fear arrived first. Embarrassment followed. Then came something harder to identify, something Alex would spend years recognizing in different forms throughout his life. He would see it in boardrooms, political debates, online arguments, and public scandals. There is a moment when people stop evaluating options and begin granting themselves permission.
By the time most decisions become visible, they have already spent considerable time approaching the edge.
Marla’s thumb moved. The launcher clicked. A grenade left the barrel and climbed into the afternoon air along a nearly perfect arc. For a fraction of a second the trajectory appeared beautiful. The thought embarrassed Alex even as it occurred to him. Gravity performs its work without concern for morality. The same equations describe a baseball, a raindrop, a satellite, and a weapon. Nature remains largely indifferent to the meanings human beings assign to outcomes.
Then the explosion arrived and the afternoon disappeared.
Smoke swallowed the fence line. Children screamed. Teachers shouted names. The familiar world folded inward and another one took its place. Alex’s sketchbook slipped from his lap. His pencil rolled across the concrete and struck a pebble with a small, precise tap. Years later he would forget details investigators considered important. He would forget timelines, statements, and descriptions. Yet he would remember the sound of graphite touching stone with impossible clarity. Memory keeps strange records. Trauma often chooses its souvenirs arbitrarily.
As smoke climbed into the sky, Alex found himself watching it because the smoke appeared to understand what it was doing. It followed invisible currents. It obeyed temperature, pressure, and wind. It moved according to rules. The people beneath it suddenly seemed governed by something else entirely. Then a sentence appeared inside his thoughts with such unexpected clarity that for a moment he wondered whether someone nearby had spoken aloud.
One down. Two remaining. Projected survival: 23%.
He didn’t detect any hostility. The voice was helpful. Which somehow felt worse.
Where this sits now
The origin of the longer arc
The Jacaranda Tree introduced Alex, Marla, the normalization of the launchers, and the first trace of the predictive intelligence later known as HALCYON. It belongs to the project’s long-form branch. Its relationship to the newer, civilization-first essays remains intentionally open while the collection grows.

